Let’s play along for a minute and predict what will happen in Laguna Beach in 2022. In some ways, it’s an easy game because historically Laguna doesn’t change very much. But will that be the case next year? Maybe, maybe not.
During the last few years Laguna has changed, inching forward into the 21st century. The Promenade, for example, was a pretty big change. The more progressive sidewalks that cater to pedestrians – not bad.
But fundamentally, Laguna is still a preservationist town. It’s a mix between a wizened, sometimes brilliant hippie and a recalcitrant, entitled preteen.
So if we assume this schizophrenic persona, our predictions follow suit: random but always interesting. Here are 10 guesses on the winners and losers of 2022.
10. Beauty wins: The water, at times, will be so clear, turquoise and tranquil that it will take your breath away. Which means inland tourists will continue to arrive like locusts, getting sunburns and acting like well, tourists. They will infuriate you, of course, but when you least expect it, you will help one of them because you care — and you will feel that intangible Laguna pride.
9. Arguing wins: Everyone will continue arguing about everything. The downtown will dominate because it gets all the money. Preservationists will want to preserve. The rest will either not care or want something fresh.
8. Diners lose: You can bank on one thing in 2022: Laguna will continue to choke on the glut of expensive restaurants. Any hope of the city having more affordable restaurants is over. So get ready for more sticks and twigs at obscene prices.
7. Artists lose: The slow, agonizing disappearance of artists will continue. As interest rates increase, housing prices will increase. And with no affordable housing inventory and no alternative live-work projects to speak of, artists will continue to leave Laguna. It’s inevitable and has been happening for several years. It’s no secret.
6. Alternative wins: With lingering COVID problems, the creative underground is a necessity. Perhaps an alternative art walk will finally emerge, where a handful of remaining, progressive artists open up their studios or homes to private, invitation-only parties. There may be performance art, experimental music and other innovative activities. Can Laguna reclaim its cutting-edge swagger in 2022?
5. Pageant of the Masters, Festival of Arts and Sawdust Art Festival will win. Once the pandemic goes away for good, people will go nuts. The festivals will see a resurgence. Let’s hope they don’t just throw on a coat of fresh paint and go back to business as usual. Take the opportunity to reevaluate what works and what doesn’t.
4. Surf culture wins (barely): Laguna Beach has the oldest demographic along the coast — the median age is almost 50 — and with very few families, the local surf culture is at risk. The fact is, there are not as many young surfers coming through the ranks in Laguna. Despite the venerable Brooks Street Surfing Classic and the highly acclaimed “Vic” Skimboarding World Championship, will we be seeing old guys rule forever? We are not so sure.
3. Undergrounding loses: A perennial loser, the undergrounding of Laguna’s poles and wires is like betting on the death of fossil fuels. It … takes … forever. Someday, some year, it will finally happen. Will it be 2022? Nope. Put it this way, the inimitable Arnold Hano, rest his soul, first wrote about undergrounding in Laguna Beach in 1961. Need I say more?
2. Homeless lose (or win?): Would you rather be homeless in Laguna or Pico Rivera? Perhaps a better question is, will Laguna get permanent supportive housing in 2022? Again, nope.
1. Residents lose: We make our own happiness, and in Laguna that’s pretty easy to do. But the slow march toward vanilla is disheartening. We need more business diversity. (Hell, we need ethnic diversity.) Business rents have become untenable, especially for downtown merchants, and the only ones capable of surviving are the deep-pocketed chain stores, exclusive shops or very expensive restaurants. We cannot turn into Santa Barbara, with its high-end boutiques and name-brand anonymity. Rent increases will continue to force out long-time businesses. It’s no secret that retail diversity has flattened out. Every time a resident-serving business leaves Laguna, it is rarely replaced in kind. Instead, we get more swank, less funk.
Bring on the funk in 2022.
